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Cutler's Stock Market Blog / Updated as of: Sunday - September 6, 2010 - 1:45pm(est)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #1) Nov 27, 2008 thru Feb 12, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #2) Feb 11, 2009 thru Mar 19, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #3) Mar 18, 2009 thru May 03, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #4) May 04, 2009 thru Oct 08, 2009)Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #6) Oct 09, 2009 thru Dec 31, 2009) Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #7) Jan 03, 2010 thru Mar 18, 2010)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #7) Jul 05, 2009 thru Jul 22, 2010)
➜ ➜ HERE IS MY TAKE ON CRAMER vs STEWART
MARKET MANIA 2010-9-6 (Monday Evening Update) SEPTEMBER MARKET MANIA INDUSTRIALS RALLY 4th STRAIGHT DAY UP 127 POINTS TO 10447
Bob McKee (Independent Strategy) - CNBC Interview
The Threat of Double-a Dip (view this excellent interview here)
September 6 (Monday) – The stock market experienced a very powerful rally for all of last week. This met our expectations given the extraordinary bearish sentiment that showed up in advisory and investor sentiment numbers as the INDUSTRIALS again pierced briefly below the 10000 mark. GOLD declined $5 on Friday closing at $1247. OIL was also weak declining to $74.60 a barrel. With little new economic data slated this week the stock market has a great opportunity to extend recent gains by another few hundred points so long as the international markets maintain a positive tone. The test is for the market to overcome and violate the Broadening Top formation (megaphone pattern) which is still operative and forecasts more downside for stocks. There are still many reasons to expect stocks to be lower not higher in the months ahead. Poor economic results and disappointing jobs creation are prime factors. Seasonal patterns are also unfavorable for at least the next 4 to 8 weeks. The thinness of market liquidity is a major concern. As easily as the market can rally 200+ points in one session, it can just as easily decline 500 points. Stocks always decline faster than they rise. In terms of macro analysis - we are pretty much at the exact POLAR OPPOSITE of where things stood in 1982 - which was the bottom of a long bear market in financial assets and birth of an 18 yr bull market. Interest rates & inflation were both in double digits - the stock market had been in a bearish mode for 16 years leading to total apathy for equity investments - today rates are at record lows and there is little sign of inflation, it is more like disinflation and has at times ventured into recent periods of deflation - so from an historical perspective it is like flipping everything upside down from where we were in 1982. Here is a very interesting discussion worth reading: Harry Dent's Outlook on Demographics, Debt, and Deflation ECONOMIC LESSON FROM GERMANY Germany, which has one of the best 'recoveries' worldwide going right now - resisted high stimulus, limited the role of government – focused on private economy incentives for business - and basically did the opposite of everything NY Times Progressive-Economics-Prostitute-in-Chief Paul Krugman has been advising. I urge everyone to not only read this very short discussion / but to understand it's import and moreover…. it should serve as a concept to supersede all other thinking on the matter.... CHART TO ANALYZE - (The Mega-Bears). We revisit this chart (courtesy of dshort.com) which compares the historical Mega-Bear Markets of the Crash of ’29, the Nikkei Collapse of ’89 and today’s market using March 2000 as the Bull Market cycle top. If past is prologue, we are in the late stages of completing a top that leads to another steady market deterioration.
TODAY’S REQUIRED READING – Deciphering Economists / by David Harsanyi “But the most crucial lesson I've gleaned from smart men and women who practice the dismal science is this: Those who claim to grasp the vagaries of the economy enough to predict the future with any amount of certitude are charlatans.” Economic Smoke and Mirrors “But we always should remember Woody Allen's truism: "That's one thing about intellectuals: They've proved that you can be absolutely brilliant and have no idea what's going on.”
THERE WILL NO BLOG for the Balance of this Week
NEXT BLOG UPDATE will be next Sunday Evening
Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights! CAP& TRADE is a SCAM / It is ENRON times 1000 / promoted by the Progressive Democrats / Don’t let CAP & TRADE Become Law / Expose the Fraud! 2010 Election Mandate: LEAVE NO PROGRESSIVE BEHIND IN OFFICE
American’s MUST & WILL VOTE OUT ALL Progressives / Save the Republic! / Surround the White House with opposition majorities in BOTH HOUSES
Environmental Groups are why there has been no nuclear energy program in America.
Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. The Progressive Marxist Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!
Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Waters,Weiner,Stark,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz. Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN,CENTER for AMERICAN PROGRESS,TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare Fake-Science Global Warming Cap&Fraud Card-Check Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at
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2010-8-29 (Sunday Evening Update) AUGUST MARKET MANIA UPSIDE REVERSAL POWERS DOW HIGHER BY 164 POINTS TO 10150
Tony Crescenzi (PUMCO) & Jeremy Siegel (U of PA) - CNBC Interview
The Hunger for Bonds (view this excellent interview here)
August 29 (Sunday) – Friday was an interesting day for the stock market. Even though the GDP Revision was downward to a paltry 1.6% growth, it was not as bad as the latest whisper numbers which were fearful of the number being close to 1% or even lower. Assisted by a decidedly oversold condition the market was able to leap 80 points out of the gate. But before stocks could gather upside momentum – Intel (INTC) indicated that forecasts were too rosy and the stock market lost its rally and collapsed into the red. The rapid setback found support on the back of comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that he had options available and was ready to act if persistent economic weakness required intervention. With that, stocks recovered and managed to push higher to gain a solid 1.65% by the end of the trading session. This week ending reversal was a welcome outcome given the prospects for a complete breakdown early on. GOLD managed to grind out a small gain closing at $1238. OIL built on earlier gains to rally nearly $2 to $75.57 a barrel. The Broadening Top formation (megaphone pattern) is still the ruling technical pattern however a period of rally may have begun on Friday. Volume in the market has dropped to multi year lows, a negative factor especially when sellers kick into high gear. Keep in mind that September is historically the worst month for equities. This is a whopper of a week for economic reports. We will see Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMl, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Car Sales, Construction Spending, Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg Index and lastly on Friday the all important Employment Situation report which is probably not going to be very strong. This could be a very wild and volatile week. MARKET SENTIMENT (view graphs) – one thing that has changed is that a variety of indicators which measure market sentiment, market psychology, indicate a growing sense of pessimism. As a contrary indicator these figures often coincide with a market term. Sometimes an important turn and other times a brief respite against the current prevailing trend (which is now down). Hence, it is likely that there will be an effort to build off of Friday’s turnaround this week. But we do not believe a major trend change has arrived. CHART TO ANALYZE - (No Chart Today).
TODAY’S REQUIRED READING – The American Economy Has Structurally Changed / by Mohamed A. El-Erian “The great hope a few months ago was for a "recovery summer," with the economy responding favorably to various policy initiatives. Yet the recovery has lost momentum...” Why Another Fiscal Stimulus Won’t Do “This worrisome trio of increasingly ineffective national and global policy stances, intense political polarization and growing social pressures speaks to the risk that the economy's recent soft patch will evolve into something even more troublesome and sinister.”
THERE WILL NO BLOG on MONDAY – TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening
Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights! CAP& TRADE is a SCAM / It is ENRON times 1000 / promoted by the Progressive Democrats / Don’t let CAP & TRADE Become Law / Expose the Fraud! 2010 Election Mandate: LEAVE NO PROGRESSIVE BEHIND IN OFFICE
American’s MUST & WILL VOTE OUT ALL Progressives / Save the Republic! / Surround the White House with opposition majorities in BOTH HOUSES
Environmental Groups are why there has been no nuclear energy program in America.
Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. The Progressive Marxist Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!
Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Waters,Weiner,Stark,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz. Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN,CENTER for AMERICAN PROGRESS,TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare Fake-Science Global Warming Cap&Fraud Card-Check Next Blog Update ➜ Thursday Evening – You May Email Me at
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2010-8-26 (Thursday Evening Update) AUGUST MARKET MANIA DOW CRACKS BELOW 10K MARKER SLIDING 74 POINTS TO 9985
Charles Nenner (Nenner Research Center) - CNBC Interview
DOW HEADING TO 5000? (view this excellent interview here)
August 26 (Thursday) – Stocks appeared ready to stabilize today especially when the dreaded weekly Jobless Claims declined to 474,000 this week. Not a great number but better than the 500K shocker reported last week. And while initially the market showed an inclination to tick higher....as the day pushed ahead prices weakened. Selling took control late in the session the DOW was again threatening a tripe digit loss, though it didn’t quite fall that much. Still the crack below DOW 10000 is a psychological negative adding to the economic negatives already in force. There is wide expectation that tomorrow’s GDP Revision will be ratcheted downward, but now whispers suggest the number will be worse than expected. Compounding things for stocks is that liquidity is very low in terms of daily volume. This makes for a vulnerability that leads to quick bouts of price deterioration. GOLD gave back $2.50 an ounce to $1238. OIL rebounded from steady recent weakness recovering nearly $1 to $73.42 a barrel. The Market internals were again poor with 3 out of 5 issues heading lower. The Broadening Top formation (megaphone pattern) we’ve featured for months has become the dominant technical pattern and it cannot be encouraging to see this Bearish formation take hold. We remain negative on equities. We are positive on GOLD. On Friday the GDP Revision will be the center of attention. Consumer Sentiment will also be a key factor in the week ending session. One of the biggest problems underlying the economy is that small business is suffering the most. Additionally, they are fearful of new policies that are increasing costs and act as disincentive to hire. Don’t listen to me though – watch this clip (3 minutes) with 3 small business executives discussing the atmosphere they find themselves in and what is dictating their decision making. CHART TO ANALYZE - (Kimble Charting Solutions). Instead of analyzing a specific chart today, there’s a whole lot of interesting financial market and economic charts courtesy of http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/ take a look.
TODAY’S REQUIRED READING – A Democrat Points to Obama’s Incompetence / by Douglas Schoen “Not only has President Obama systematically put forward unpopular policies and programs that are not producing real, long-lasting results that reflect the wishes of the American people, he has not generated a sense of competence in the electorate.” Obama’s Damaging Doublespeak “If Obama isn’t able to project competence, his hopes of winning reelection, as well as the success for the Democratic Party in this fall’s midterm elections, will continue to deteriorate.”
Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights! CAP& TRADE is a SCAM / It is ENRON times 1000 / promoted by the Progressive Democrats / Don’t let CAP & TRADE Become Law / Expose the Fraud! 2010 Election Mandate: LEAVE NO PROGRESSIVE BEHIND IN OFFICE
American’s MUST & WILL VOTE OUT ALL Progressives / Save the Republic! / Surround the White House with opposition majorities in BOTH HOUSES
Environmental Groups are why there has been no nuclear energy program in America.
Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. The Progressive Marxist Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!
Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Waters,Weiner,Stark,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz. Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN,CENTER for AMERICAN PROGRESS,TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare Fake-Science Global Warming Cap&Fraud Card-Check Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at
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2010-8-22 (Sunday Evening Update) AUGUST MARKET MANIA INDUSTRIALS EXTEND RECENT SLIDE DOWN 57 POINTS TO 10213
Edward Yardeni (Yardeni Research) - CNBC Interview
Which Way Will Market Eventually Break Out? (view this excellent interview here)
August 22 (Sunday) – After a second week down for stock prices amid the backdrop of weakening economic news, perceptions are growing that markets are facing a new influx of headwinds for the balance of 2010. Unemployment stats are not improving much. GOLD did a little backtracking losing $4 an ounce to $1229. OIL continued weak slipping almost another $1 to $73.92 a barrel. The options expirations were a non-event. Market internals were poor with 3 out of 5 issues heading lower. The Broadening Top formation (megaphone pattern) we’ve been featuring remains in force and portends a serious market breakdown from its bearish 5-point reversal configuration. European and Asian economies are not vibrant with the Japanese & China stock markets especially weak. As negative seasonal factors approach (sep-oct-nov), a defensive position for equities remains warranted. The possibility of a very sharp decline is in the air. There are no economic reports Monday but lots of housing data kicks off on Tuesday when Existing Home Sales are released. Later in the week we’ll see new data on New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, GDP, Consumer Sentiment and the dreaded weekly Jobless Claims.
DEMOCRATS CREATED HOUSING BUBBLE and FINANCIAL MELTDOWN TURNS OUT DEMOCRATS, NOT BUSH, DROVE ECONOMY INTO A DITCH – THEY HAD THE KEYS ALL ALONG DEMOCRATS masterminded what eventually became the housing bubble which later morphed into a full blown financial crisis. So when President Obama tells the American people the GOP drove the car into the ditch he is either intentionally misleading or gravely misinformed. Not only is that storyline not accurate, it is somewhat shameless for him particularly to make those comments. After all, Obama himself was one of many Democrats, working alongside ACORN and other community organizer groups, using intimidation tactics along with coordinating professional astro-turfing, to pressure banks into making risky loans to millions of no and low-income people who could not afford them. What do you think Obama was actually doing in Chicago in the 1990’s as part of his radical community organizing activities? In a 1999 article by Steven A. Holmes of the liberal NY Times, he predicted dire financial consequences based upon the push to increase home ownership at any cost that was fostered by Democrats in the late ‘90’s under the Clinton administration. The article, Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending, a must read, quotes then Fannie Mae chairman Franklin Raines: ''Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990's by reducing down payment requirements,'' said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae's chairman and chief executive officer. ''Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.'' In other words, Raines and the Democrats wanted to push the limits of aggressive lending even more than they already had. The 1999 article exposed these important factors: ''In July, the Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed that by the year 2001, 50 percent of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's portfolio be made up of loans to low and moderate-income borrowers. Last year, 44 percent of the loans Fannie Mae purchased were from these groups. The change in policy also comes at the same time that HUD is investigating allegations of racial discrimination in the automated underwriting systems used by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to determine the credit-worthiness of credit applicants.” In other words, using racial discrimination as a lever, Democrats pressed harder for loans to be made specifically to minorities who could not afford the mortgages. Under Clinton, in 1999, Larry Summers worked on legislation to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933. This was legislation enacted during the Great Depression to prevent banks, investment banks and insurance companies from crossing into each other’s lines of business to protect the consumer and the financial system. This act did its job for 67 years. But Democrats pushed for repeal to unleash more financial power by enabling Wall Street investment companies and banks to build a market for mortgage-backed securities and accelerate the subprime lending market. Democrat President Clinton signed the repeal into law. Then the Bush administration took office in January 2001. Over subsequent years many GOP elected officials raised questions and pointed out red flags pointing to the looming danger coming from Fannie and Freddie and Democrat policies which were creating an unsustainable risky home lending situation. President Bush brought this subject up on several occasions. Every time, powerful Democrats from the House Finance Committee and from the Congressional Black Caucus rose to defend the government lending programs and denied any problems stemming from the lending institutions. All the while, the same Democrats were co-opting with local Democrat activist groups to keep pushing banks to make more of these loans and catalyzing the process through their strong ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It turns out those 2 government-backed lending companies were the exclusive slush fund vehicles for Democrats to enable the continuing buildup of mortgages to people who could not afford them. Democrats covered up for Fannie and Freddie at every challenge. Look who said what…. and when (watch incriminating clip). This written narrative also reveals who is who and what is what. And here is the timeline of the warnings and danger signs about Fannie and Freddie that again shows Democrats rejected every effort to regulate and supervise Fannie and Freddie when warnings were raised by Treasury Secretary John Snow, Fed Chairman Greenspan and other high ranking GOP members including McCain and even President Bush. In November 2006, Democrats took control of Congress and the crazy lunatic Nancy Pelosi became Speaker of the House. Within months of Democrats establishing Congressional power, markets began cracking under the weight of the paper that was created around the bad mortgages they promoted for more than a decade…. the risky loans pushed by Democrats and their advocacy groups (ACORN, etc) from the mid 1990’s though 2008. Fannie and Freddie: Barney Frank Finally Comes Home to the Facts From a recent interview with Barney Frank, in Fannie and Freddie: Barney Frank Finally Comes Home to the Facts, Larry Kudlow relays this recent admission from Representative Frank - “it was a great mistake to push lower-income people into housing they couldn’t afford and couldn’t really handle once they had it.” He then added, “I had been too sanguine about Fannie and Freddie.” Barney Frank, one of the key Democrats at the forefront of creating the housing bubble and financial crisis, now wants to erase his tracks. Watch this clip - it puts Barney Frank’s involvement in perspective using his own words. Many other Democrats including Chris Dodd, Chuck Schumer and Maxine Waters (now facing Congressional Ethics violations) were equally responsible for enabling and catalyzing the housing bubble while protecting and defending their turf institutions Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – they blocked all efforts to impose regulation for years, up to and though the subsequent financial meltdown. Listen to Maxine Waters protecting Fannie Mae from regulators and staunchly defending the lending facility by claiming there are no problems at Fannie Mae. She then proudly cites her view of ‘outstanding leadership’ by Franklin Raines. Listen here to Maxine Waters applaud the Democrats on exceeding their goals for their ‘outstanding housing mission’. The GOP has been sucked into a vacuum of liberal propaganda. The Democrat narrative…. the message that the prior administration drove the country into the ditch does not corroborate the facts of who caused the housing bubble and catalyzed the financial markets meltdown. From the mid 1990’s until the present: The timeline of events and the key individuals who instigated, enabled, catalyzed, empowered, promoted, promulgated, propagated and later on defended and protected against regulatory inquiry, the policy of risky lending to unqualified borrowers -> all points back to the Democrats. The community organization groups, like ACORN, which were employed to shake down banks, embarrass them, humiliate them, threaten them and make aggressive charges of racial discrimination against them in order to break down their conservative lending policies to make more aggressive loans – were all coordinated by Democrats and Democratic advocacy groups. This is the truth of the history of the financial crisis. All brought to you by Democrats. Democrat propaganda creates a false narrative. It’s time for that narrative to be corrected – with facts and actual history. The Words…. The Deeds…. The Events…. They are all on tape and in print. CHART TO ANALYZE - (No Chart Today).
TODAY’S REQUIRED READING – Impact from High Debt and Too Low Interest Rates / by Gretchen Morgenson “In short, the Fed’s interest rate policy may be causing more economic problems than it’s solving.” Debt’s Deadly Grip “Of course, the federal government is a huge beneficiary of low rates; if they were higher, our already ballooning deficits would be heftier still. Nevertheless, raising interest rates a bit would be beneficial on several counts, Mr. Petzel maintains. It could help increase consumption and would reduce the appeal of higher-yielding and dicier investments.”
THERE WILL NO BLOG on MONDAY – TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening
Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights! CAP& TRADE is a SCAM / It is ENRON times 1000 / promoted by the Progressive Democrats / Don’t let CAP & TRADE Become Law / Expose the Fraud! 2010 Election Mandate: LEAVE NO PROGRESSIVE BEHIND IN OFFICE
American’s MUST & WILL VOTE OUT ALL Progressives / Save the Republic! / Surround the White House with opposition majorities in BOTH HOUSES
Environmental Groups are why there has been no nuclear energy program in America.
Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. The Progressive Marxist Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!
Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Waters,Weiner,Stark,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz. Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN,CENTER for AMERICAN PROGRESS,TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare Fake-Science Global Warming Cap&Fraud Card-Check Next Blog Update ➜ Thirsday Evening – You May Email Me at
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2010-8-19 (Thursday Evening Update) AUGUST MARKET MANIA DOW INDUSTRIALS SUFFER ROUGH SESSION OFF 144 POINTS TO 10271
Riccardo Ronco (Aviate Global) - CNBC Interview
Sentiment Reveals Too Much Complacency (view this excellent interview here)
August 19 (Thursday) – The stock market took it on the chin today as investors rejected the latest economic data. The dreaded weekly Jobless Claims jumped back up 500,000 initial claims and the largest total since November. The Philly Fed Survey was also quite disappointing. Stocks faded on these reports and never regained their footing though they did climb up from their worst intra-day levels. The Broadening Top formation (megaphone pattern) is still in force and is threatening a serious market breakdown from its bearish 5-point reversal configuration. Continuing its recent strength GOLD added another $2 to $1231. OIL remains under pressure falling another $1 to $74.44 a barrel. The news highlights of the day were the buyout by Intel Corp(INTC) of McAfee Associates(MFE) at a big premium to its stock price and the filing of an IPO by the new General Motors. Apparently, to have all investment dollars returned to the government by the auto company, the government would have to sell its 304 million share holdings at roughly $160 a share. Wow! Don’t hold your breath for that! There are no economic reports Friday with only the August expiration of options to keep an eye on. As you can see from the interview link above, there is far too much complacency for a market that has already lost its upward momentum. Seasonal patterns are approaching the most negative time of year from stocks, the Sep-Oct window. We remain defensive and hedged through ETF’s that cover the short side of the market. WE continue to favor GOLD as a core investment theme. The only positive is that investors cling to the hope that November elections will diminish power of this wayward administration.
AMERICA’S ECONOMY IS THREATENED BY THE POLITICS OF PROGRESSIVE and LIBERAL DEMOCRATS The far left is becoming exposed as crazier with each passing day. They project themselves as deceitful (liars), hateful (claiming everyone is a racists, homophobe or Islamiphobe), self-absorbed (they believe themselves intellectually elite and to have cornered the market on intellect), manipulative (propaganda meisters) and hypocritical (no standards, all positions serve their interests only in the moment). More Americans are realizing they cannot allow themselves to be identified with the perversions of truth manufactured by liberals as broadcast by their propaganda partners (NBC, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, NY Times, HuffPo) Liberal and Progressive Democrats. The left knows there are people in our country who gravitate toward embracing fiction and rejecting truth who can be captured into far left ideology with the help of professionally crafted manufacturing of narratives and intentionally methodical indoctrination. The corrupt liberal media complex aids the left by providing the messaging vehicle to produce the indoctrination and spin the false narratives to bring more robots into their fold. Some people will watch a fictional movie cleverly crafted and edited by a conniving lefty such as Michael Moore or Al Gore and as a result they’ll embrace as truth a gigantic lie promoted in the movie -- such as Cuba's healthcare is better than America's health care. These same people can then view real recordings of Congressional hearings which include dialogue of Democratic members of Congress who blocked all efforts to regulate Fannie Mae and will still deny the key role Democrats played in enabling and catalyzing the housing crisis while obstructing all efforts to rein it in. What types of people adopt myth as truth and reject actual tape-documented truth? Progressive and Liberals Democrats do this. This is why on November 2, every last Progressive and Liberal Democrat must be voted out of power. CHART TO ANALYZE - (No Chart Today).
TODAY’S REQUIRED READING – Obama, Like Everyone, Is a Product of One's Associations / by Peter Kirsanow “We have a president who doesn’t get America. For the first time in history we have a president whose default setting is in opposition to the general sensibilities of the American people.” Obama vs. America “But perhaps most emblematic of Obama’s self-identification was his proud declaration, before a vast crowd in Berlin, that he is a “citizen of the world.” Most Americans believe that that world would be a much darker place without the United States of America. And they would be pleased if their president could express that belief without being patronizing, self-referential, or defensive. But to do so, it’s helpful to get America and Americans.”
Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights! CAP& TRADE is a SCAM / It is ENRON times 1000 / promoted by the Progressive Democrats / Don’t let CAP & TRADE Become Law / Expose the Fraud! 2010 Election Mandate: LEAVE NO PROGRESSIVE BEHIND IN OFFICE
American’s MUST & WILL VOTE OUT ALL Progressives / Save the Republic! / Surround the White House with opposition majorities in BOTH HOUSES
Environmental Groups are why there has been no nuclear energy program in America.
Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. The Progressive Marxist Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!
Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Waters,Weiner,Stark,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz. Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN,CENTER for AMERICAN PROGRESS,TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare Fake-Science Global Warming Cap&Fraud Card-Check Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at
This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
2010-8-15 (Sunday Evening Update) AUGUST MARKET MANIA DOW INDUSTRIALS END ROUGH WEEK LOSING 16 POINTS TO 10303
David Rosenberg (Chief Economist, Gluskin Sheff) - CNBC Interview
Weak Economic Prospects (view this excellent interview here / other interview part)
August 15 (Sunday) – It was a rough week for stocks, not just in terms of percentage decline, but psychologically as well. Economic data continued to show weakness and even those with slight improvement like Retail Sales failed to inspire the equities markets. Interest rates continue to forge new lows and the 10-Year Treasury now yields around 2.7%. Mortgage rates linger at half century lows. In addition to the economic winds confronting markets there are also critical technical issues. The Broadening Top formation (megaphone pattern) is a bearish 5-point reversal configuration that is now dominating the DOW INDUSTRIALS. On Friday GOLD added $2 to $1216. OIL continues its recent weakness down to $75.57 a barrel. Despite all of these negatives, chances are stocks will attempt to stabilize this week. But t do so there is a minefield of economic reports to navigate including key reports on Tuesday for Housing Starts, Producer Prices and Industrial Production. Then on Thursday we’ll get the dreaded weekly Jobless Claims, the Leading Indicators and the Philly Fed Survey. CHART TO ANALYZE - (Mega-Bear Markets Overlay Chart). It’s been a month since we’ve looked at the big picture comparison chart (courtesy of dshort.com) of the current market versus the market patterns following the Great Crash of ’29 and Japan’s Collapse of 1989. There is an eerie similarity in the patterns traced out by these 3 significant market periods. If past is prologue the stock market has recently completed it’s post-crash rally and is now entering another downward period for stocks. That is what appears to be happening.
TODAY’S REQUIRED READING – The Trick of Using Disproportions to Imply Racism and Assign Blame / by Thomas Sowell “This may seem to be just another passing piece of silliness. But it is part of a more general bean-counting mentality that turns statistical differences into grievances. The time is long overdue to throw this race card out of the deck and start seeing it for the gross fallacy that it is.” Bean-Counters and Baloney
“The bean-counters are everywhere, pushing the idea that differences show injustices committed by society. As long as we keep buying it, they will keep selling it-- and the polarization they create will sell this country down the river.”
THERE WILL NO BLOG on MONDAY – TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening
Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights! CAP& TRADE is a SCAM / It is ENRON times 1000 / promoted by the Progressive Democrats / Don’t let CAP & TRADE Become Law / Expose the Fraud! 2010 Election Mandate: LEAVE NO PROGRESSIVE BEHIND IN OFFICE
American’s MUST & WILL VOTE OUT ALL Progressives / Save the Republic! / Surround the White House with opposition majorities in BOTH HOUSES
Environmental Groups are why there has been no nuclear energy program in America.
Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. The Progressive Marxist Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!
Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Waters,Weiner,Stark,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz. Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN,CENTER for AMERICAN PROGRESS,TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare Fake-Science Global Warming Cap&Fraud Card-Check Next Blog Update ➜ Thursday Evening – You May Email Me at
This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
2010-8-12 (Thursday Evening Update) AUGUST MARKET MANIA DOW INDUSTRIALS CONTINUE SLIDE FALLING 59 POINTS TO 10319
Dan Niles (Alpha One Capital Partners) - CNBC Interview
Outlook for Technology and Overall Stock Market (view this excellent interview here)
August 12 (Thursday) – Whoa Nellie! A funny thing happened on the way to economic recovery. Just when investors were getting comfortable crawling back into the stock market, the road supporting the crawl came up to the edge of a cliff. Nearly all recent economic data indicates the recovery has faltered and the economy is turning down again. Today’s stock market continued lower after Wednesday’s near 3% drop and although stocks stabilized, they never strengthened. The dreaded weekly Jobless Claims again came up short of expectations and the job situation remains week. The record low interest rates on the long end of the curve are an ominous sign that the balance of 2010 is not looking promising. Interestingly, a negative correlation returned today with GOLD as the precious metal soared in the face of a weak equity market, rallying $17 to $1216. OIL performed poorly and sunk by over $2 closing at $75.70 a barrel. The negative megaphone pattern in the stock market (Broadening Top formation) has become the ruling technical pattern and has downside implications for stocks. I remain bearish for stock market investments. CHART TO ANALYZE - (NO CHART TODAY).
TODAY’S REQUIRED READING – Public Reaction to Elitist Class Warfare / by Tony Blankley “It is insufferable (and will not long be suffered) to be lectured to and imposed upon by a ruling class that loathes our nation's history, values and accomplishments; by those who are not, in fact, our genuine betters. They are neither better educated nor more profoundly morally versed.” The Ruling Class vs. the Public
“and we will not slacken in our efforts until that repulsive plan for transformation has been expurgated from the body politic -- to quote Franklin D. Roosevelt -- "so help us God.”
Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights! CAP& TRADE is a SCAM / It is ENRON times 1000 / promoted by the Progressive Democrats / Don’t let CAP & TRADE Become Law / Expose the Fraud! 2010 Election Mandate: LEAVE NO PROGRESSIVE BEHIND IN OFFICE
American’s MUST & WILL VOTE OUT ALL Progressives / Save the Republic! / Surround the White House with opposition majorities in BOTH HOUSES
Environmental Groups are why there has been no nuclear energy program in America.
Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. The Progressive Marxist Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!
Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Waters,Weiner,Stark,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz. Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN, TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare. Reject Fake-Science Global Warming & Cap&Fraud. Reject Card-Check Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at
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2010-8-8 (Sunday Evening Update) AUGUST MARKET MANIA DOW FIGHTS BACK FROM WEAK OPEN OFF ONLY 21 POINTS TO 10653
Carter Worth (Oppenheimer Asset Management) - CNBC Interview
Market Technicals (view this excellent interview here)
August 8 (Sunday) – When the disappointing monthly EMPLOYMENT SITUATION was released it set the stage for a weak opening and a potentially bad day for stocks. As in recent days and weeks after absorbing initial selling the market turned around and cut losses significantly. Besides the obvious weakness in the jobs report and the down revisions from the prior month, the usually economic leading component, Temp-Hires, was also down. Stocks were mostly flat for the week but a clear negative divergence developed in the broader market and secondary issues. Rallies continue to exhibit weak volumes. And there is growing evidence that the market has entered a zone of overhead congestion that may cap the recent rally. Nearly all recent economic data implies the modest recovery has slowed down and may be rolling over. GOLD was the upside standout Friday rallying $11 to $1206. OIL finished the week under pressure closing at $80.88 a barrel. Recent strength in stocks rally provides opportunity for investors to reassess and reshape portfolios – and prepare for what may the onset of another serious decline. BROADENING TOP PATTERN HAS NEGATIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR STOCKS A dangerous BROADENING TOP or 'megaphone pattern’ (info) has been traced out. This is a 5-point reversal pattern incorporating a succession of lower lows and higher highs which produces the megaphone pattern. A typically negative chart formation, it must be respected unless and until the pattern is nullified. Here is a current analysis of this threatening pattern written by Peak Theories Research LLC. published at seekingalpha.com. CHART TO ANALYZE - (NO CHART TODAY).
TODAY’S REQUIRED READING – Surveying Current Political Landscape / by Victor Davis Hanson “Obama could still restore his standing with the American people if he copied the Clinton of 1995 and abandoned his unpopular agenda. But he won’t.” Obama: Not the Great Stone Face
“The public is waiting for an articulate conservative reformer who will quietly keep promises to balance the budget more through spending cuts than taxes, close the border to illegal immigration, either win or get out of long wars abroad, respect federal law and apply it equally, and restore a sense of American confidence and American exceptionalism.” THERE WILL NO BLOG on MONDAY – TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening
Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights! CAP& TRADE is a SCAM / It is ENRON times 1000 / promoted by the Progressive Democrats / Don’t let CAP & TRADE Become Law / Expose the Fraud! 2010 Election Mandate: LEAVE NO PROGRESSIVE BEHIND IN OFFICE
American’s MUST & WILL VOTE OUT ALL Progressives / Save the Republic! / Surround the White House with opposition majorities in BOTH HOUSES
Environmental Groups are why there has been no nuclear energy program in America.
Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. The Progressive Marxist Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!
Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Waters,Weiner,Stark,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz. Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN, TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare. Reject Fake-Science Global Warming & Cap&Fraud. Reject Card-Check Next Blog Update ➜ Thursday Evening – You May Email Me at
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2010-8-5 (Thursday Evening Update) AUGUST MARKET MANIA DOW HOLDS DESPITE JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE, OFF 5 POINTS TO 10675
David Gerstenhaber (Argonaut Capital Management) - CNBC Interview
Macro View of the Markets (view this excellent interview here)
August 5 (Thursday) – There is no doubt the stock market impressively shrugged off a steady stream of discouraging economic news. Disappointment in today’s rise in weekly JOBLESS CLAIMS as well as soft monthly SAME STORE SALES from a host of retailers didn’t deter investors. The initial decline at the opening bell hinted that a downward session could easily develop, yet things leveled off and stocks closed only mildly to the downside. Technically the Bulls are taking encouragement that strained overbought readings are being worked off without much price erosion. But as I mentioned earlier in the week there is one ominous looking chart formation that brings dark clouds. I speak of the dangerous BROADENING TOP or “megaphone pattern’ coming into play. This is a 5-point reversal pattern that incorporates a succession of lower lows and higher highs which forms the megaphone. This must be respected unless and until the pattern is nullified. GOLD was unchanged today closing at $1195. OIL eased off recent recovery highs to end at $82.04 a barrel. The stock market rally has provided ample opportunity for investors to reshape portfolios – make readjustments – and prepare for what could be another dramatic decline in the near future. Friday's market action is all about the eagerly anticipated EMPLOYMENT SITUATION report. Could be a wild day!
BEST INTERVIEW SERIES / Joe Kernen with Don Peebles, Chairman & CEO, the Peebles Corporation Watch these interview clips by masterful CNBC anchor Joe Kernen, of successful real estate entrepreneur Don Peebles – an investor who has been a strong Obama supporter, fundraiser and advocate. Suddenly, he is speaking out with the common sense and experience of a businessman and putting his economic views ahead of his political views. This is a very good interview and a very good sign of the emerging psychology from those few on the left who retain a modicum of sense and sensibility. PeeblesClip1 / Peebles/Clip2
CHART TO ANALYZE - (NO CHART TODAY).
TODAY’S REQUIRED READING – Exposing the Absurd Liberal Position on Illegal Immigration / by Victor Davis Hanson “Some 11 million to 15 million illegal aliens are now residing in America, most after crossing into America unlawfully. Once a federal law is arbitrarily not enforced, all sorts of bizarre paradoxes arise from that original contradiction. As proof, examine the following illogical policies and contradictions involving illegal immigration.” Illogical Immigration
“These baffling questions are rarely posed, never addressed and often considered politically incorrect. But they will only be asked more frequently in the months ahead.” Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights! CAP& TRADE is a SCAM / It is ENRON times 1000 / promoted by the Progressive Democrats / Don’t let CAP & TRADE Become Law / Expose the Fraud! 2010 Election Mandate: LEAVE NO PROGRESSIVE BEHIND IN OFFICE
American’s MUST & WILL VOTE OUT ALL Progressives / Save the Republic! / Surround the White House with opposition majorities in BOTH HOUSES
Environmental Groups are why there has been no nuclear energy program in America.
Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. The Progressive Marxist Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!
Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Waters,Weine,rStark,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz. Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN, TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare. Reject Fake-Science Global Warming & Cap&Fraud. Reject Card-Check Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at
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2010-8-1 (Sunday Evening Update) AUGUST MARKET MANIA DOW STAVES OFF BIG LOSS TO LOSE ONLY 1 POINT TO 10465
James Bullard (St. Louis Federal Reserve, President) - CNBC Interview
Discussing Inflation & Fed Policy (view this excellent interview here)
August 1 (Sunday) – The stock market closed out its first upward month in the last 4 with a nice week-ending recovery after what began as a triple digit decline. Disappointment in the 2.4% GDP number was overcome by modest improvement in Consumer Sentiment and Chicago PMI figures plus a general assist from existing positive market momentum. For the year the DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS are a hair above where they started out. Technically there are major challenges ahead – seasonally the calendar soon tilts negative for equities – troubling technical patterns (see chart section below) have formed including the immediate threat of a DOUBLE TOP and the potential threat of a dangerous BROADENING TOP should the market extend another one or two hundred points higher. With interest rates at multi decade lows there are signs of stress in the system and long-term confidence in the financial markets is not high. GOLD has been showing signs of losing upward momentum lately, but posted its best session in awhile rising $15 to close at $1182. OIL continued climbing back toward $80 closing at $78.99 a barrel. We remain negative on stocks and maintain a defensive portfolio, including hedge positions and even owning Bearish ETF’s. On Monday we’ll get new data on Construction Spending and the ISM Manufacturing Index and a new stream of corporate earnings reports. Politics may be influencing financial markets more than usually right now. The 2010 election is just 93 days away. The markets may have taken recent encouragement from these latest poll numbers showing Obama’s approval rating has made new all-time lows and his approval vs. disapproval rating has now crossed over and is turning down. America rejects his policies and ideology. America rejects the Progressives and their agenda toward large government socialism.
PROGRESSIVE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ARE THE SPONSORS OF CIVIL UNREST IN AMERICA Once you understand that the entire PROGRESSIVE/LIBERAL movement is all about mobilizing professionally organized protests (i.e.; Astro-Turf), demonizing narrowly defined targets within society, exploiting minorities and making reckless and frequent charges of racism because they are losing the public debate on issues and policy - there is not a decent person among us who can stand with LIBERALS and still remain comfortable in our own shoes. LIBERALS, through organized thug-activism via Unions (SEIU), ACORN (and other gov't funded orgs.) are responsible for ALL current civil unrest in America. Who funds these activities? You do. Union member dues and tax payer monies are used to sponsor professional protest groups to bus in folks from other states. These activities are all closely coordinated with Democrat party leadership and the corrupt LIBERAL media who collude to broadcast a biased favoritism of the protesters on newspaper front pages and as lead stories for the lamestream network news. Their purpose is to continue LIBERAL manipulation of the public using deceptive rhetoric and propaganda.... all of these PROTESTS have in common that they are designed to agitate and create an atmosphere of civil unrest to foster an environment of public hostility - they ALL are organized from the LEFT. The LEFT. Examples / SEIU & ACORN bussed in professional agitators to protest on a front lawn of a BankAmerica executive while the only person home was his very frightened 13 year old son - in another event, they shipped in out-of-towners to protest on the front lawn of an AIG executive and intimidated his family…. While at the same moment, Barney Frank was hosting a congressional hearing charade to demonize CEO's and cover up his own responsibility for the housing bubble and financial crisis - all fully coordinated with the media to distract the public from the real culprits (politicans who pushed aggressive home lending) and create populist outcry against their demonized targets.… it is all manufactured, all synthetic…. all Astro-Turf. In St.Louis, SEIU union thugs beat up a black conservative at a Tea Party and the culprits have been shielded by Democrat politicians and unions lobbied to prevent and delay prosecution. Nobody on the LEFT speaks up to condemn the crime. Why should they? The DEMS are behind it.… it’s part of their organized Astro-Turf network. Recently, Unions bussed in hundreds of professional out-of-state protesters into Arizona to agitate against the immigration law – a law which a strong 7 out of 10 Americans support. This is where union dues are being spent - this is where public money (taxpayer dollars) are spent - all designed to create civil unrest. It’s all a big show played for the corrupt LIBERAL MEDIA complex to help slant and promote a distorted message that goes against the will of a clear majority of Americans. This is what the LEFT is all about. This is the DEMOCRAT party at work. A vast nationwide corrupt network with advocacy groups that act as muscle and voice. Meanwhile, the only true grass roots movement in America is the Tea Party - but you can see why Nancy Pelosi claimed that was 'Astro-Turf.' All she knows is Astro-Turf - EVERYTHING on the LEFT is highly organized. Pelosi wouldn't know a real grass roots movement - her entire experience has been in coordination with Democrats, Unions, ACORN-like groups, you know…. Astro-Turf – to stage public protest and civil agitations for political purposes that are tightly coordinated with biased LIBERAL media coverage. Do we as a nation need this? No wonder Pelosi concludes that all such movements must be Astro-Turf. She worked closely with the corrupt LIBERAL media to feature smear stories about Tea Party people and other citizens who came to speak out at Town Hall meetings to oppose Obamacare. Through organized and coordinated protests the LEFT creates threatening situations to private citizens and opens the possibility of broader civil volatility. Meanwhile, the peaceful Tea Parties hold their events at neutral venues and all civilized folks are invited to attend. Racism is rejected and nobody is targeted for hostile protest at either their homes or offices. That is the public intimidation strategy employed exclusively by the LEFT. A deplorable strategy. To understand the difference is to understand that there are no redeeming values on the LEFT. All of these despicable actions on the left are done under political cover by exploiting minorities, claiming to represent the impoverished, claiming to save the earth and claiming the mantle of oppression to pursue their agenda of huge government and wealth redistribution – policies which keep lower social-economic people on a leash and endlessly dependent upon government programs. Many folks who call themselves 'LIBERALS' do not understand the big picture of the LEFT and the intentional civil unrest they continually promote at every opportunity. Any LIBERALS, who view themselves as decent people with integrity and good character must wake themselves up! Noteworthy too is that anti-Semitism within the United States also emanates from the LEFT. The right is almost universally in full support of Jews and the state of Israel. When will Jews who call themselves 'LIBERAL' finally own up to the truth and separate themselves politically from the anti-Semitism that comes from the LEFT ? For everyone, especially those on the LEFT, it is time to recognize the ugliness and civil disruption and public agitation the LEFT represents.... and it isn't very pretty! Radio commentator Dennis Prager, writing on the NAACP's attack on "racist elements" of the tea party at RealClearPolitics.com: “The charge of racism leveled by liberal organizations, whether black or white, is now regarded as the politically motivated falsehood that it is. It is rightly seen, along with its six siblings — sexism, xenophobia, intolerance, bigotry, homophobia and 'Islamophobia' — as the Left's way of avoiding argument by demeaning its opponents. . . . One day, the charge loses all its moral power. That happened this past year as a result of the liberal attacks on conservative opposition to Obama as racially based. Every conservative knows that opposition to the Obama and Democratic agenda has nothing to do with the president's color. Does any liberal honestly believe that if Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid were president and pursued the same Leftist agenda Obama has, there would be less conservative opposition because Pelosi and Reid are white? So, something good has come of this: the de-fanging of the 'racist' label. It no longer intimidates conservatives as it once did.”
CHART TO ANALYZE - (8 Month Charts: Nasdaq 100 – Russell 2000 – S&P 500). You can see from this chart (courtesy of dshort.com) that key market indexes have rallied 50% back from the July low to the April high. Historically, retracements of 50% are often where rebounds fail so it is critical to watch the action this week.
TODAY’S REQUIRED READING – American People Can Make Better Decisions Than Gov’t / by Jonah Goldberg “The greatest damage from the Deepwater Horizon disaster…. has been from the federal government. The drilling ban imposed by the administration, against the counsel of the sort of “sound science” Obama usually sanctifies, has been devastating to the region, costing thousands of jobs and untold millions in lost revenues and taxes.” A Crisis Gone to Waste
“Fortunately, his energy plan has died in Congress without a vote, because even members of his own party recognized it as an economic and political suicide pact. A majority of voters never bought into the idea that the Gulf spill was yet another crisis for Obama to exploit rather than fix. If we can put a man on the moon, people said, plug the leak. Even 65 percent of Democrats oppose the ban, according to a Bloomberg poll.
It seems that the American people can make up their own minds better than government can. A point that should be driven home come November.”
THERE WILL NO BLOG on MONDAY – TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening
Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights! CAP& TRADE is a SCAM / It is ENRON times 1000 / promoted by the Progressive Democrats / Don’t let CAP & TRADE Become Law / Expose the Fraud! 2010 Election Mandate: LEAVE NO PROGRESSIVE BEHIND IN OFFICE
American’s MUST & WILL VOTE OUT ALL Progressives / Save the Republic! / Surround the White House with opposition majorities in BOTH HOUSES
Environmental Groups are why there has been no nuclear energy program in America.
Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. The Progressive Marxist Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!
Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Waters,Weine,rStark,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz. Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN, TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare. Reject Fake-Science Global Warming & Cap&Fraud. Reject Card-Check Next Blog Update ➜ Thursday Evening – You May Email Me at
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2010-7-29 (Thursday Evening Update) JULY MARKET MANIA DOW INDUSTRIALS TRIM EARLY LOSSES OFF 30 POINTS TO 10466
David Levy (J.Levy Forecasting Group) - CNBC Interview
Bond Yields Headed Much Lower (view this excellent interview here)
July 29 (Thursday) – What we originally thought would be a traditional 3-day Bear market rally from the most recent low point turned into a complete retracement back to the June high. This has happened despite a consistent stream of disappointing economic reports. Support for the extended move higher came largely from earnings reports which have pleasantly surprised many analysts even if revenues were short in some companies. GOLD added almost $5 to close at $1168. OIL had a strong move up closing at $78.22 a barrel. There are some potentially difficult chart patterns in the DOW INDUSTRIALS now. The most pressing is Bearish ‘double top’, a pattern when if sustained has a high reliability of marking very important tops. Given that such a formation would be forming below the prior top in April, such patters would certainly pinpoint the beginning of another move lower. Of course one good day up from here would erase the threat of the pattern. Unfortunately, that would open the door for an equally dangerous Bearish pattern, a rare one known as the ‘broadening formation’. In other words, even though the current tone has been positive for stocks, the weight of the chart formations now favors those looking fro lower prices. Tomorrow’s GDP numbers will be closely scrutinized as it will no doubt point to the strength or lack thereof, in the economy. The risk factors remain high and it would not be shocking to see stock prices suddenly back into a faster sliding mode again soon. CHART TO ANALYZE - (No Chart Today). TODAY’S REQUIRED READING – Bottom Line: Experience Trumps Brilliance / by Thomas Sowell “The idea that the wise and knowledgeable few need to take control of the less wise and less knowledgeable many has taken milder forms-- and repeatedly with bad results as well.” The Danger of Elite’s Social Engineering
“Elites may have more brilliance, but those who make decisions for society as a whole cannot possibly have as much experience as the millions of people whose decisions they pre-empt. The education and intellects of the elites may lead them to have more sweeping presumptions, but that just makes them more dangerous to the freedom, as well as the well-being, of the people as a whole.” Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights! CAP& TRADE is a SCAM / It is ENRON times 1000 / promoted by the Progressive Democrats / Don’t let CAP & TRADE Become Law / Expose the Fraud! 2010 Election Mandate: LEAVE NO PROGRESSIVE BEHIND IN OFFICE
American’s MUST & WILL VOTE OUT ALL Progressives / Save the Republic! / Surround the White House with opposition majorities in BOTH HOUSES
Environmental Groups are why there has been no nuclear energy program in America.
Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. The Progressive Marxist Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!
Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Waters,Weine,rStark,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz. Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN, TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare. Reject Fake-Science Global Warming & Cap&Fraud. Reject Card-Check Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at
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2010-7-25 (Sunday Evening Update) JULY MARKET MANIA DOW INDUSTRIALS EXTEND RALLY ANOTHER 102 POINTS TO 10424
Andrew Freris (BNP Paribas) - CNBC Interview
Can The Rally Be Sustained? (view this excellent interview here)
July 25 (Sunday) – Stocks have fought off some economic disappointment lately and on Friday added another 1% in the DOW INDUSTRIALS. The giant focus was on details from the bank stress tests in the Eurozone. Fewer than 10 of the 91 banks failed the stress tests and markets took relief from that news. Of course, questions linger as to the criteria upon which those tests were based, but for the moment, all is good. However all of this may be only a distraction to the underlying pressures on financial markets as evidenced by the record lows in interest rates. The housing and construction sectors show no signs of life, a disturbing situation this far along into what is supposed to be economic recovery. Plus, there are signs of weakness coming from Asia, with the Chinese and Japanese stock markets among the worst performing in the world. GOLD fell on Friday by $5 to close at $1190. OIL was down slightly to $78.89 a barrel. Technically the U.S. stock market is now overbought and there are potentially bearish chart patterns forming again. If these patterns trigger new sell signals, then our unfulfilled downside target of DOW 9300 will be achieved. The problem then becomes that seriously lower new targets will also be calculable. There is a growing trend of reawakened market volatility as more and more sessions are closing with 3-digit swings. We remain very Bearish and advise strong defensive positions. The probabilities of another sharp downside move are increasing daily.
THE REALLY, REALLY BIG PICTURE FOR THE STOCK MARKET In 1982, after a long and at times devastating 16 year bear market, a new major Bull market emerged. The market went through all of its stages from doubt and skepticism to acceptance to eventually end in a foray of rational exuberance pinpointed by the end of the high-tech bubble in March 2000. During the 18-year move confidence in stocks swung the full spectrum of the pendulum. As confidence increased, so did liquidity and more investors began to make stock investments as part of their investment portfolios. Eventually confidence turned into wild and reckless abandon. Investors were willing to purchase IPO’s of companies that had no business model. They would pay 50 times what someone else paid a few years earlier. Post office break rooms were full of new stock market experts telling tales of great and rapid investment success and advising their peers how easy it was to make money in stocks. Speculation grew rampant and markets became more complex with new fangled investment vehicles. When long running periods of sustained optimism turn into manic behavior, it is often a sign that the end of the cycle has arrived. What happens once the music stops and the party ends? Typically the next cycle is one that moves in the opposite direction. In the early stages, the first few years of decline, people remain skeptical that a downtrend has developed. Hope remains eternal and market rallies bring renewed confidence back quickly even though stock prices have deteriorated well below their best levels. What investors lose sight of is that the down cycle has the exact mirror opposite characteristics than were experienced during the 18 year up cycle. In other words, as years go by, confidence turns to despair as prices fall. As despair creeps in, the recovery rallies become less exciting and fail more quickly. Liquidity dries up on a slow and steady basis. Eventually there is not enough liquidity to keep all the stocks active and the second and third tier stocks go into a funky phase where they fail to participate in the Bear market rallies. By the time 15 years of a down cycle runs its course, stock prices are generally at major new lows. The more speculative names barely trade. This is the opposite condition observed when Bull markets peak and speculation in little known companies run rampant simply because some analyst mentioned its name on financial television. CHART TO ANALYZE - (DOW INDUSTRIALS / 1900-Present - Monthly). This is a great picture of over 100 years of the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (courtesy of stockcharts.com). When one steps back to look at the really, really big picture, it is easy to understand how an argument can be made for a massive top formation in progress. There is a strong case to be made that the low in 1933 served as the starting point for a 67 year Bull market that has been tracing out a mega top after a parabolic rise that included a long Bear market consolidation during the 1970’s. / You may find of interest this preliminary discussion of the (K-Wave) KONDRATIEV WAVE (info link) / Observations made by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev appeared in his book The Major Economic Cycles (1925).
TODAY’S REQUIRED READING – Economic Problems from the Financial Regulation Bill / by J.C. Watts “This legislation fixes nothing, accomplishes nothing, yet promises everything…. Will this bill prevent another crisis like the one that erupted in October of 2008? Absolutely not.” The Financial Services ‘Reform’ Mess
“The Democrats say they will deal with the housing finance restructuring next year. Taxpayers can only hope the Democrats are no longer in power to do more damage in that area, because they still want taxpayers to front the government money if Fannie and Freddie are neutered.”
THERE WILL NO BLOG MONDAY - TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY
NEXT BLOG UPDATE is Thursday Evening
Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights! CAP& TRADE is a SCAM / It is ENRON times 1000 / promoted by the Progressive Democrats / Don’t let CAP & TRADE Become Law / Expose the Fraud! 2010 Election Mandate: LEAVE NO PROGRESSIVE BEHIND IN OFFICE
American’s MUST & WILL VOTE OUT ALL Progressives / Save the Republic! / Surround the White House with opposition majorities in BOTH HOUSES
Environmental Groups are why there has been no nuclear energy program in America.
Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. The Progressive Marxist Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!
Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Waters,Weine,rStark,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz. Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN, TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare. Reject Fake-Science Global Warming & Cap&Fraud. Reject Card-Check Next Blog Update ➜ Thursday Evening – You May Email Me at
This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
2010-7-22 (Thursday Evening Update) JULY MARKET MANIA DOW INDUSTRIALS ZOOM HIGHER BY 201 POINTS TO 10322
Phil Roberts (Barclays Capital) - CNBC Interview
Markets at Important Tipping Points (view this excellent interview here)
July 22 (Thursday) – The stock market rebounded with a solid rise of 2% in the DOW INDUSTRIALS and even better gains in the broader market averages. Several important companies reported solid earnings this morning with an upbeat toen already present from higher European markets. When the market shrugged off disappointment in both the Jobless Claims & Leading Indicators stock buyers emerged en masse. As we recently pointed out the market is in a tug-o-war zone as it tries to redefine the uptrend that has thus far failed in April. With most key indices now bumping against core technical overhead resistance and the stock market mildly overbought, the Friday session is an important test. This is critical because there are 2 potential Bearish chart formations being traced out: a diamond top (currently active pattern) and a broadening top (only possible if the 10600 level is exceeded). To break away from these requires work and days like today do start to change the price pattern relationships. As the technician, Roberts points out (link above), COPPER is showing upside breakout indications and that has the potential to increase confidence in an economy that has been sending out signals of weakness from every direction. GOLD rallied today by $9 to close at $1195. OIL declined .21 to $79.09 a barrel. Democrats are starting to panic about the economy not recovering in time for the election. Some are now calling for the Bush tax cuts to be extended. Amazing how even Democrats can think logically and sensibly when their backs are up against the wall. The anti-business policies of the Obama administration have contributed to the economic malaise. Jobs have been negative impacted by the Progressive policies of the Democrats in power… yet they still want to blame Bush. Yet somehow, we hear some Democrats now wanting to extend the Bush tax cuts. Democrats are liars, thieves and cons. The Progressive agenda is the most dangerous philosophy in America today and it must be stopped. On November 2 all Progressives must be voted out – every last one of them! CHART TO ANALYZE - (No Chart Today).
TODAY’S REQUIRED READING – The Left’s Employment Views Exclude Job Creator Input / by Rich Karlgaard “What’s lost in these arguments about jobs, especially by those on the left, are the voices of the jobs’ creators themselves. Those would be the employers. Let me repeat: In a national debate about jobs and job creation, hardly anyone is talking to job creators about jobs!” The Forgotten Employer
“The forgotten man in this crisis is the employer. We forget him at our danger.” Keep America STRONG! – Speak out against government corruption! – Keep LIBERTY and FREEDOM in your sights! CAP& TRADE is a SCAM / It is ENRON times 1000 / promoted by the Progressive Democrats / Don’t let CAP & TRADE Become Law / Expose the Fraud! 2010 Election Mandate: LEAVE NO PROGRESSIVE BEHIND IN OFFICE
American’s MUST & WILL VOTE OUT ALL Progressives / Save the Republic! / Surround the White House with opposition majorities in BOTH HOUSES
Environmental Groups are why there has been no nuclear energy program in America.
Reject the Progressive / Liberal Agenda. The Progressive Marxist Agenda must be derailed & DEEEEE-STRROOOOYYYED!
Reject Obama,Pelosi,Reid,Schumer,Soros,Podesta,Stern,Boxer,Frank,Waters,Weine,rStark,Nadler,Wasserman-Schulz. Reject SEIU, MOVE-ON-CON-JOB, ACORN, TIDES FOUNDATION. Reject Obamacare. Reject Fake-Science Global Warming & Cap&Fraud. Reject Card-Check Next Blog Update ➜ Sunday Evening – You May Email Me at
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Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #1) --- Nov 27, 2008 thru Feb 12, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #2) --- Feb 11, 2009 thru Mar 19, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #3) --- Mar 17, 2009 thru May 03, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #4) --- May 04, 2009 thru Jul 06, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #5) --- Jul 05, 2009 thru Oct 08, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #6) --- Oct 09, 2009 thru Dec 31, 2009)
Cutler's Stock Market Blog (Archive #6) --- Jan 01, 2010 thru Mar 18, 2010)
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